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Baseball Betting Lines

Headlining the NL pitching staff is a trio of Phillies starters in Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels. The San Francisco Giants will also send three starters in Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Ryan Vogelsong as well as their closer -- Brian Wilson. Also making the squad were Atlanta's Jair Jurrjens and the Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw, while Heath Bell of the Padres, Tyler Clippard of the Nationals, Joel Hanrahan of the Pirates and Jonny Venters of the Braves will comprise the NL's bullpen.

 

Curtis Granderson of the Yankees and Josh Hamilton of the Texas Rangers make up the rest of the AL outfield, with Boston's David Ortiz selected as the DH.

 

Reigning AL Cy Young award winner Felix Hernandez of the Seattle Mariners highlights the AL pitching staff. Other starters for the squad will be Josh Beckett of the Red Sox, Gio Gonzalez of the Athletics, David Price and James Shields of the Rays, Justin Verlander of the Tigers, Jered Weaver of the Angels and C.J. Wilson of the Rangers. The bullpen consists of the Royals' Aaron Crow, Seattle's Brandon League, Cleveland's Chris Perez, New York's Mariano Rivera and Detroit's Jose Valverde.

 

The American League candidates are Alex Gordon of the Royals, Adam Jones of the Orioles, Paul Konerko of the White Sox, Victor Martinez of the Tigers and Ben Zobrist of the Rays.

 

The lead lasted all of five pitches, as Thames took the first pitch he saw over the center-field wall to tie the game prior to Bautista crushing his league-leading 27th home run of the season into the second deck in left.

 

Jo-Jo Reyes settled down after giving up four runs in the second inning and kept it close long enough for Octavio Dotel (2-1) to earn the win in relief. Dotel recorded the final five outs to snap Toronto's three-game slide.

 

The Phillies came back in the late innings to win the first two games of the series, but wasted little time jumping out in front on Sunday with a four-run second inning.

 

Shane Victorino started the rally with a one-out ground-rule double and scored on Ben Francisco's base hit up the middle. After a Domonic Brown single, Carlos Ruiz one-hopped the wall in right-center for a ground-rule double to score Francisco, and Rollins chased home two with an opposite-field hit to right.

 

Bautista, MLB's leading vote-getter for the All-Star game this season, scored on a Juan Rivera sacrifice fly in the sixth to make it a one-run game. Victorino caught the fly ball in center and tripped over his own feet to allow Bautista to trot home without a play at the plate.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

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